Chance and Likelihood
Chance and likelihood describe how possible an event is, using words such as certain, impossible, likely, unlikely, and equally likely.
Practice This ConceptMain explanation
Teacher explanation
Before writing probability as a number, students should judge the situation sensibly. If an event must happen, it is certain. If it cannot happen, it is impossible. If it has a better chance than another event, it is more likely.
Example
Getting a number less than 7 on a normal die is certain, while getting 8 on the same die is impossible.
Simple analogy
Unlikely is not impossible; it only means less chance.
Common confusion
Students often call an event impossible just because it is unlikely. Unlikely means it can still happen, but with a small chance.
Exam tip
Read the condition carefully and decide whether the event can happen, must happen, or may happen before assigning a probability idea.
Answer writing and exam use
1-mark use
Write the exact meaning of chance and likelihood in one clean line.
2-mark use
Define chance and likelihood and add one example or condition.
3-mark use
Explain chance and likelihood, show the method or example, and mention the common mistake.
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