Comparing likelihood of events
Comparing likelihood means deciding which event is more likely by comparing their probabilities.
Practice This ConceptMain explanation
Teacher explanation
If one event has a larger probability than another, it is more likely to happen. This skill is important in exam questions that ask students to compare two choices, two bags, or two spinners. The student must compare the fractions carefully, not just look at the numbers in the numerator or denominator alone.
Example
An event with probability 3/5 is more likely than an event with probability 1/4.
Simple analogy
Bigger probability means better chance.
Common confusion
Students sometimes compare only the denominators or only the numerators and ignore the full fraction.
Exam tip
Convert probabilities to the same form before deciding which event is more likely.
Answer writing and exam use
1-mark use
Write the exact meaning of comparing likelihood of events in one clean line.
2-mark use
Define comparing likelihood of events and add one example or condition.
3-mark use
Explain comparing likelihood of events, show the method or example, and mention the common mistake.
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